Nova Scotians made political history last night. Progressive Conservative Premier Tim Houston was rewarded with an even larger majority of seats than he had going into last night’s election. In fact, he has tied the record for the largest seat count in provincial history, set by PC Premier Robert Stanfield in 1963.
Houston, cruised to a massive landslide victory in snap campaign that generated little appetite for change and turned into a race for second place. The PCs increased their seat count while the Liberals, formerly the Official Opposition, crashed to third party status in the legislature replaced by the New Democrats as the second largest party in the House of Assembly.
It took just nine minutes after the final poll for the networks to declare Houston would return to office leading a second majority government.
Here are the standings now that all the votes have been counted by Elections Nova Scotia.
Houston paid no penalty for breaking his legislative commitment to hold a fixed-date election in 2025. He ran a disciplined upbeat campaign constantly hammering at the message of “Lower Taxes, More Doctors and Higher Wages,” while both opposition parties were mostly unsuccessful trying to tie the Tories to a housing affordability issue that is particularly acute in metropolitan Halifax.
Winners and Losers:
The New Democrats, under Claudia Chender, can claim a silver medal, replacing the Liberals as Official Opposition with seat gains from the Grits in Metro Halifax. Four years ago, the Liberals were the governing party in Nova Scotia, but tonight they suffered their biggest setback in decades and will be looking for a blueprint to re-build. The Grits were shattered, barely passing the two-seat threshold required to maintain official party status in the House of Assembly.
In his concession speech last night, Liberal leader Zach Churchill placed the blame for the party’s loss on himself. When the final votes were counted in Churchill’s Yarmouth riding this morning, Elections Nova Scotia declared PC Candidate Nick Hilton the winner by 16 votes. It’s unknown if Churchill will request a recount.
So, what can we expect from a Houston Term 2 Government?
Healthcare
Elected in 2021 on a promise to “Fix healthcare”, we can expect no less attention to the issue, but the PC Party made few new commitments relying instead on their record. The “More Doctors” slogan refers to a new medical school at Cape Breton University opening in 2025 as well as a new expedited accreditation system for foreign-trained MDs announced earlier this year.
New Health commitments
· No-cost shingles immunization for seniors.
· Establish an internal to the province travel nurses team to reduce the cost of hiring from elsewhere.
· Create a research centre for the treatment of menopause.
· Eliminate parking charges at hospitals.
Taxes and Affordability
Nova Scotia is still running deficits, but Houston is committed to tax cuts.
· The provincial component of the GST/HST will drop by 1 % on April 1st, reducing government revenue by $261 M.
· Re-introduce indexing to inflation of personal income tax brackets costing $160 M to the treasury.
· Reducing the small business tax from 2.5% to 1.5% on firms with revenue of less than $500,000.
Just before the election call the government was forecasting a deficit of $654.0 million for the 2024-25 fiscal year, a $186.6-million increase from the $ 467.4 million deficit presented in March. The annual budget of the provincial government is $16 B.
Other Affordability Commitments
· The new first time homebuyers program decreases the downpayment to just 2% of some homes if the unit is mortgaged through a credit union.
· Extended the cap on rent increases to 5%.
· Removing the tolls on the two Halifax Harbour bridges at $40 M in reduced revenue.
The Trudeau and Trump Factors
Houston dearly wanted to run for re-election while a deeply unpopular Justin Trudeau was still in power. He got his wish and managed to marginalize the provincial Liberals to a rump party in the campaign.
Now, he must pivot quickly, along with the other provincial premiers to work with the federal government to defend the Canadian economy against the threat of crippling sanctions coming from the incoming U.S. administration. Prime Minister Trudeau has called a First Ministers meeting via video link for 6 pm ADT Wednesday. Nova Scotia is worried about major industrial sectors that prop up the rural Nova Scotia economy, seafood, automobile tires, and lumber.
Next Steps – a New Cabinet and a Spring Budget
With a bigger caucus comes new names and we can expect at least some new MLAs getting a seat at the table. Scott Armstrong, a former Conservative MP, and newly elected MLA is the highest profile possibility. Houston also needs to select a permanent Finance Minister. Environment Minister Tim Halman, a Dartmouth MLA, has been acting Finance Minister since Allan MacMaster quit days before the election to run for a Federal Conservative Nomination. Health Minister Michelle Thompson, a steady hand in the key portfolio and a popular minister with the public might want a change but is expected to stay where she is for at least the first half of the new mandate.
A transition team has already been announced and a new cabinet will be unveiled in two weeks.